Why context is key when it comes to media planning
Insights
08.20.25
By: Stuart Bryan

A podcast titled Behavioural Science for Agencies: Media Planning has been doing the rounds at Guerillascope, and we think it’s worth blogging about.
Of particular interest has been Michael Aaron Flicker and Richard Shotton’s discussion around the idea of the fundamental attribution error, wherein people (wrongly) assume that behaviours are driven by personality; in reality, the context of a given situation is far more powerful in determining an individual’s response.
With many campaigns still over-relying on target audiences based on age, socioeconomic status, gender and the personas pinned to these groups, it’s clear that a rethink is required.
The importance of mood
Shotton builds on this further, citing an experiment by Fred Bronner that asked 1,287 participants to flick through a newspaper for fifteen minutes then recall how many ads they saw. Those who stated they were in a ‘bad’ mood remembered around 35% of the ads posted in the newspaper, while those in a ‘good’ mood could recall circa 50%.
This study, the hosts argue, gives credence to the value of reaching people while they’re in a positive mindset. Doing so boosts the noticeability, recall and the likability of an advertisement.
What’s more, a follow-up study conducted by Shotton in partnership with News UK and Dentsu found that people who claimed to be in a positive mood were more likely (76%) to say promotional ads represented good value for money than those in a negative mindset (60%), therefore suggesting that price sensitivity is also impacted by mood.
The happy place(s)
As fellow human beings, media planners have an intuitive understanding of contexts more likely to trigger joy and relaxation in people. This intuition, it could be argued, is far more valuable than the nuts and bolts of imprecise audience demographics.
We also know the media landscape like the back of our hand. Popular TV shows, aspirational travel publications, cinema screenings and weekend radio are just some of the environments where contextually relevant ads are perfect for reaching people whilst they’re in a positive mindset. Ultimately, the ‘where’ and ‘when’ are just as – if not more – important than the ‘who’.
Pay attention to life-stages
As we’ve established, to assume people of the same demographic will behave in the same way is a mistake: one 34-year-old man will have vastly different views and motivations to another, depending on the context.
One such context is a person’s life-stage. As a case in point, Shotton talks about the work of Adam Alter – in particular, his study on ‘nine-enders’.
Western society places great importance on the turn of a decade in our ageing process; entering a new one compels us to step off auto-pilot and take stock of where we are in life. We’re far more likely to be in a state of introspection, which often results in a heightened receptiveness to new ideas and products. Research has found that nine-enders are 48% more likely to participate in a marathon, for example.
Armed with customer data, brands can use this context to build deeper engagement through personalised marketing activity that corresponds with the behavioural changes such periods of re-evaluation trigger.
The view from HQ
Media planning continues to evolve at a rapid pace, with advances in technology and data boosting our capacity to deliver impactful campaigns.
But while technology and data are invaluable tools, they must be melded with human intuition to be truly effective. Media planners are uniquely positioned: we can fuse this intuition with an in-depth understanding of the media landscape to construct campaigns that reach the right people, in the right places, at the right time.
Audience demographics still have an important role to play in marketing, especially when it comes to framing a message. However, without an acute understanding of context, the impact of this messaging can be lost. Media planners are the topographers who will ensure it stays on course.
To listen to the podcast in its entirety, click here.

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